Silver has been one of the best performing assets in 2025, through nudges we presented silver opportunity to our MFD clients on 16th Jul 2025 for their wealth builders (satellite) portions
It’s been a great ride for clients, however caution is warranted now. On 8th October we observed huge deviation of ETFs and MF pricing from spot silver see below chart
many popular funds are now trading ~10% above the spot price of the silver, while it difficult to pin point single reason but its definitely failure on part of AMCs and ETFs providers who are selling these products
ETFs are trading at steep premiums to their indicative Net Asset Value (iNAV)
Heavy retail buying hit the ETF units at the open, but creation units (fresh units from APs against vaulted bars) weren’t immediately available.
Result: market price traded above iNAV. That premium is what you see as the ETF lines leaping ahead right there.
What has to break for the gap to close
Physical premium cools:
More silver arrives in India, festival/industry demand eases, and wholesale premiums drop.Creation pipeline catches up:
Market makers can create new ETF units quickly again.INR steadies or strengthens:
If USD/INR stops rising (or INR gets stronger), that currency push inside ETF prices fades.Momentum cools:
If global silver pauses or dips, hot money in ETFs calms down.
Don’t chase Silver
To prevent “losing 10% on day 1” from impact costs. Wait for alignment with iNAV as that will happen over next few weeks,If premiums persist beyond November, it could signal deeper supply issues, but my current view lean toward quick resolution.
Happy Investing
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